★ Red Wave Report
–days to the midterms
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$110 Brent crude per barrel on Oct. 16, highest since May

Showdown in the Strait of Hormuz

Eight months after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began on Feb. 28, attacks on ships in Hormuz hit their highest level of the war in October. Oil flows were about 68% of normal in mid-October, per Kpler. Pakistan and Qatar are still passing messages between the sides.

Why it matters for the GOP

CENTCOM says the U.S. and its partners control the strait, about 400 ships moved through it in one week, and the U.S. blockade has cost Iran about $25 billion in oil income.

The pushback

A June deal to end the war collapsed in July. U.S. figures through June count 19 service members killed and a cost of more than $113 billion.

Sources (3)

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"Make a deal" Trump's message to Zelensky, Oct. 20

Trump turns up the pressure on Kyiv

Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine on Oct. 11, eased sanctions on Russian diesel, and used a national-security waiver to hold off new sanctions under the Graham Russia sanctions law he signed a month earlier. Envoy Steve Witkoff was expected in Russia this week.

Why it matters for the GOP

The President's argument is that the war has to end at the negotiating table, and that cheaper energy matters to Americans paying $4 a gallon. Secretary Rubio calls the sanctions waiver "a balancing act."

The pushback

Zelensky said the ceasefire announcement was news to him, and senators from both parties backed the sanctions law the waiver set aside.

Sources (2)
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2,513 people taken into custody in France on Oct. 17 alone

"Not going to put up with it"

As riots spread across France, Trump told rallies in Greenville, N.C. (Oct. 20) and Clemson, S.C. (Oct. 21) that America won't see the same thing, crediting his border policy and his rollback of DEI programs. Paris has imposed a curfew and France is bringing in the military to support police.

Why it matters for the GOP

Law and order is a winning contrast for Republicans, and Europe's unrest gives them a live example to point to two weeks before the election.

The pushback

French President Macron pushed back on foreign leaders weighing in on the unrest, and on AI-generated images being shared about it.

Sources (1)

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