$3,400+ average tax refund in 2026, up about 11% (White House data)

No tax on tips, no tax on overtime

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act's first filing season brought bigger refunds. About 25 million filers claimed the overtime deduction, about 6 million claimed no tax on tips, and roughly 30 million seniors qualified for a larger standard deduction.

Why it matters for the GOP

House leaders are running on what they call the Working Family Tax Cut: a concrete, wallet-level win to point to on the campaign trail.

The pushback

A Bipartisan Policy Center survey found 38% of taxpayers noticed no difference, and the tips deduction has income caps and limits.

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💵 Economy & Trade 🔥🔥🔥On fire

$4.33 national average gallon of gas (AAA), with CPI at 3.7%

The war is hitting the pump

September inflation rose to 3.7%, driven by gasoline, which jumped 9.1% in a month and is up 34% from a year ago. Diesel hit a record $6.29. The Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023.

Why it matters for the GOP

Core inflation, which leaves out energy, is a much lower 2.6%. Most of the jump is energy prices tied to the Iran war and Russia's war in Ukraine, not broad-based price growth.

The pushback

Only 22% of voters approve of the President on inflation in the latest Fox News poll, and another Fed hike could come at the Oct. 27-28 meeting.

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💵 Economy & Trade 🔥Warm

6-3 Supreme Court vote striking down the IEEPA tariffs

Tariffs after the Supreme Court

On Feb. 20 the Court ruled the emergency-powers law (IEEPA) doesn't authorize tariffs. Within days the administration replaced them with a 10% global tariff under Section 122, kept Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper, autos and lumber, and opened new Section 301 trade investigations.

Why it matters for the GOP

The President still has trade tools Congress gave him, and the steel, aluminum and auto tariffs that protect American industry were never in question.

The pushback

Section 122 tariffs are capped at 15% and expire after 150 days without Congress. Justices Kavanaugh, Thomas and Alito dissented.

Sources (2)

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